The effects of contemporary treatment of DCIS on the risk of developing an ipsilateral invasive Breast cancer (iIBC) in the Dutch population

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PURPOSE: To assess the effects of contemporary treatment of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) on the risk of developing an ipsilateral invasive breast cancer (iIBC) in the Dutch female population. METHODS: Clinical data was obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR), a nationwide registry of all primary malignancies in the Netherlands integrated with the data from PALGA, the Dutch nationwide network and registry of histo- and cytopathology in the Netherlands, on all women in the Netherlands treated for primary DCIS from 2005 to 2015, resulting in a population-based cohort of 14.419 women. Cumulative iIBC incidence was assessed and associations of DCIS treatment type with subsequent iIBC risk were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. RESULTS: Ten years after DCIS diagnosis, the cumulative incidence of iIBC was 3.1% (95% CI: 2.6-3.5%) in patients treated by breast conserving surgery (BCS) plus radiotherapy (RT), 7.1% (95% CI: 5.5-9.1) in patients treated by BCS alone, and 1.6% (95% CI: 1.3-2.1) in patients treated by mastectomy. BCS was associated with a significantly higher risk for iIBC compared to BCS + RT during the first 5 years after treatment (HR 2.80, 95% CI: 1.91-4.10%). After 5 years of follow-up, the iIBC risk declined in the BCS alone group but remained higher than the iIBC risk in the BCS + RT group (HR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.15-2.61). CONCLUSIONS: Although absolute risks of iIBC were low in patients treated for DCIS with either BCS or BCS + RT, risks remained higher in the BCS alone group compared to patients treated with BCS + RT for at least 10 years after DCIS diagnosis.