Evolution of the Coupling Coordination Relationship Between Population Structure and Regional Economy, and the Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors in Ulanqab City, China

Enhancing the capacity for the joint development of population structure and regional economy is crucial for promoting high-quality new-type urbanization in the modern development era. By integrating the PES (Population – Economy – Society) model with the coupled coordination model and the obstacle factor diagnostic model, a comprehensive evaluation index system for population structure and regional economy was established. This system was then employed to analyse the coupling relationship between population structure and regional economy, and to identify major obstacles in Ulanqab from 2000 to 2020. The findings indicate that (1) both the composite index of population structure and that of the regional economy exhibited a fluctuating upward trend, with population structure development preceding that of the regional economy; and that (2) the coupling degree and coupling coordination degree demonstrated an overall upward trajectory, reaching a stage characterized by high-quality coupling and favourable coordination. However, the coupling coordination degree lagged behind the coupling degree. (3) The urban-rural, employment, and cultural structures emerged as key impediments to urbanization. Specifically, major barriers included the number of primary and secondary school students, the number of full-time primary and secondary school teachers, the urban-rural income gap, and the urban Engel coefficient. (4) To address these challenges, it is essential to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure, gradually reduce the urban-rural income gap, improve the quality of basic education, and promote the coordinated development of population structure and regional economy.