Risk perception and response to changing wildfire hazards: Evidence from family forest owners in the western US Pacific Northwest

Climate models predict future increases in the frequency, magnitude, and duration of natural hazard events, including heat waves, droughts, and wildfires. People may be aware of these natural hazards but unfamiliar with new patterns expected under climate change. Ideally, people would take action to protect themselves from natural hazard events—even those with which they have limited prior experience. Doing so would likely reduce the public costs of later assisting individuals impacted by events when they occur. Although a large body of research has examined how people perceive and protect themselves from the risks of natural hazards, fewer studies have focused on risk behavior in the context of changing hazard conditions. In such contexts, people’s past experiences may not be indicative of the future so they may rely more on their beliefs and information gained through their social networks when making decisions. Focusing on the western Pacific Northwest, USA–where a growing number of wildfires, including extreme wildfires, may signal changing hazard conditions–we examined the influence of wildfire hazard experiences, beliefs about environmental change, and information networks on family forest owners’ wildfire risk perceptions and risk mitigation intentions. We found strong correlations between family forest owners’ wildfire experiences and their wildfire risk perceptions. We also found strong correlations between owners’ risk perceptions and their beliefs about environmental change and information networks. Owners’ wildfire risk mitigation intentions were also correlated with their perceptions of risk, perceived capacity to reduce risk, beliefs about environmental change, and information networks. Our findings provide evidence that in the context of changing wildfire hazards, people rely on their experiences when making decisions about risk mitigation behavior in addition to their beliefs and social networks.