Predictors of Mortality Following Aortic Valve Replacement in Aortic Stenosis Patients

Background: Understanding of the risk factors for the development of adverse outcomes after aortic valve replacement is necessary to develop timely preventive measures and to improve the results of surgical treatment. Methods: We analyzed patients with aortic stenosis (n = 742) who underwent surgical treatment in the period 2014−2020. The average age was 63 (57;69) years—men 58%, women 42%. Results: The hospital mortality rate was 3% (22 patients). The following statistically significant threshold values (cut-off points) were obtained in the ROC analysis: aortic cross-clamp time > 93 min AUC (CI) 0.676 (0.640−0.710), p = 0.010; cardiopulmonary bypass time > 144 min AUC (CI) 0.809 (0.778−0.837), p < 0.0001, hemoglobin before op <120 g/L. AUC (CI) 0.762 (0.728−0.793), p < 0.0001, hematocrit before op <39% AUC (CI) 0.755 (0.721−0.786), p < 0.001, end-diastolic dimension index >2.39 AUC (CI) 0.647 (0.607−0.686), p = 0.014, end-systolic dimension index > 1.68 AUC (CI) 0.657 (0.617−0.695), p = 0.009. Statistically significant independent predictors of hospital mortality were identified: BMI > 30 kg/m2 (OR 2.84; CI 1.15−7.01), ischemic heart disease (OR 3.65; CI 1.01−13.2), diabetes (OR 3.88; CI 1.38−10.9), frequent ventricular ectopy before operation (OR 9.78; CI 1.91−50.2), mitral valve repair (OR 4.47; CI 1.76−11.3), tricuspid valve repair (OR 3.06; CI 1.09−8.58), 3 and more procedures (OR 4.44; CI 1.67−11.8). Conclusions: The hospital mortality rate was 3%. The main indicators associated with the risk of death were: diabetes, overweight (body mass index more than 30 kg/m2), frequent ventricular ectopy before surgery, hemoglobin level below 120 g/L, hematocrit level below 39%, longer cardiopulmonary bypass time and aortic cross-clamp time, additional mitral and tricuspid valve interventions.