Key result
GAV score predicts operative death in isolated AVR with an excellent ~0.93 AUC.
Why the study?
The study was conducted to test the performance of the German Aortic Valve score in patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement at a university hospital.
Does the German Aortic Valve (GAV) score accurately predict operative death in patients undergoing isolated surgical aortic valve replacement in a Brazilian center?
Observational (n=224)
No
Does the German Aortic Valve (GAV) score accurately predict operative death in patients undergoing isolated surgical aortic valve replacement in a Brazilian center?
The German Aortic Valve score demonstrates high predictive accuracy and good calibration for estimating operative mortality in Brazilian patients undergoing isolated surgical aortic valve replacement.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
May support GAV score use for operative mortality risk in Brazilian isolated AVR; extends European validation but remains hypothesis-generating.
OBJECTIVE: To test the German Aortic Valve (GAV) score at our university hospital in patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). METHODS: A total of 224 patients who underwent isolated conventional AVR between January 2015 and December 2018 were included. Patients with concomitant procedures and transcatheter aortic valve implantation were excluded. Patients' data were collected and analyzed retrospectively. Patients' risk scores were calculated according to criteria described by GAV score. Sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy (area under the ROC curve [AUC]) were also calculated. The calibration of the model was tested by the Hosmer-Lemeshow method. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 8.04% (18 patients). The patients' mean age was 58.2±19.3 years and 25% of them were female (56 patients). Mean GAV score was 1.73±5.86 (min: 0.0; max: 3.53). The GAV score showed excellent discriminative capacity (AUC 0.925, 95% confidence interval 0.882-0.956; P<0.001). The cutoff "1.8" turned out to be the best discriminatory point with the best combination of sensitivity (88.9%) and specificity (75.7%) to predict operative death. Hosmer-Lemeshow method revealed a P-value of 0.687, confirming a good calibration of the model. CONCLUSION: The GAV score applies to our population with high predictive accuracy.
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Rayol et al. (2020) conducted an observational in Isolated aortic valve replacement (n=224). German Aortic Valve (GAV) score was evaluated on Operative death (AUC 0.925, 95% CI 0.882-0.956, p=<0.001). The German Aortic Valve (GAV) score showed excellent discriminative capacity to predict operative death in patients undergoing isolated AVR (AUC 0.925; 95% CI 0.882-0.956; P<0.001).
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