COVID-19-related conspiracy theory beliefs: Examining individual, country-level, and cross-level predictors

This is the authors' abstract. We don't add key points for this paper.

The COVID-19 pandemic has not only posed unprecedented challenges to global health but has also created a breeding ground for conspiracy theories. Understanding the factors associated with COVID-19-related conspiracy beliefs is key for developing targeted interventions to mitigate their detrimental impact on public health measures, such as vaccination uptake and adherence to health guidelines. This study aims to identify individual, country-level, and cross-level interaction predictors related to COVID-19 conspiracy theory beliefs. European Social Survey (ESS) Round 10 data (edition 3.2), with a sample of 56,430 respondents from 29 European countries, were used in the analysis. Over 30 possible predictors were examined, including individual-level factors such as respondents' sociodemographic characteristics; trust and satisfaction with institutions; political, ideological, and conspiratorial beliefs; social and interpersonal factors; and perceived well-being and quality of life. Country-level predictors included societal cultural dimensions, economic indicators, governance and institutional quality, and the severity of the pandemic in each country. Our findings indicate that individual-level factors, such as lower education and income levels, younger age, lower life satisfaction, lower interpersonal trust, poorer subjective health, higher religiosity, a stronger general belief in conspiracy theories, and political right-wing orientation, were significant predictors of belief in the COVID-19-related conspiracy theory. Vaccinated individuals or those intending to get vaccinated exhibited lower levels of belief in the conspiracy theory than those who did not plan to get vaccinated. Reduced trust in government, healthcare systems, and scientists was also associated with greater belief in the conspiracy theory. At the country level, a culture characterized by greater restraint was related to higher belief in the COVID-19-related conspiracy theory. The analysis also revealed 29 significant individual- and country-level interactions. However, individual-level predictors were stronger than country-level or interaction effects in predicting belief in the COVID-19-related conspiracy theory. This study enhances understanding of the multifaceted nature of conspiracy belief endorsement, providing valuable insights for policymakers, health professionals, and researchers. It underscores the importance of addressing both individual and societal factors to effectively combat misinformation and strengthen public health responses during times of crisis. • Over one-fifth of Europeans believe COVID-19 was a plotted government action. • Individual-level predictors explained more variance than country-level ones. • Most cross-level interactions were related to national COVID-19 death rates.