Key result
Tripling daily farm depopulation and vaccination eliminates foot-and-mouth disease epidemics ~7 days faster than baseline.
Why the study?
Foot-and-mouth disease spreads rapidly among ungulates and poses control challenges, requiring an understanding of transmission dynamics and evaluation of control measures to mitigate its impact.
Effect estimate: Mean difference 2.36 (95% CI 2.22-2.49)
p-value: p=<0.05
A multiscale stochastic model demonstrates that rapid response and increased capacity for emergency vaccination and depopulation significantly reduce the magnitude and duration of foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks.
Enhanced depopulation-vaccination capacity may shorten FMD outbreaks; stochastic modeling leaves open real-world validation.
Introduction: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) affects multiple food-animal species and spreads rapidly among ungulate populations, posing significant challenges for disease control. Understanding the dynamics of FMD transmission and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures are critical for mitigating its impact. This study introduces a multiscale compartmental stochastic model to simulate FMD spread and assess countermeasures. Methods: We developed a model that integrates population dynamics, including births, deaths, and species-specific transmission dynamics, at both the between-farm and within-farm levels. Four scenarios were created to evaluate different control strategies: the base scenario included vaccinating 20 farms and depopulating four infected farms, while alternative scenarios increased vaccination and depopulation capacities or omitted vaccination altogether. Results: Our simulations showed that bovines were the most frequently infected species, followed by swine and small ruminants. After 10 days of initial spread, the number of infected farms ranged from 1 to 123, with 90.12% of simulations resulting in fewer than 50 infected farms. Most secondary spread occurred within a 25 km radius. An early response to control actions significantly reduced the time spent managing outbreaks, and increasing daily depopulation and vaccination capacities further enhanced control efforts. Discussion: Emergency vaccination effectively reduced the magnitude and duration of outbreaks, while increasing depopulation without vaccination also eliminated outbreaks. These findings highlight the importance of rapid response and capacity scaling in controlling FMD outbreaks, providing valuable insights for future decision-making processes in disease management.
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Cárdenas et al. (2024) studied Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) (n=284,823). Alternative control scenarios (increased depopulation and/or vaccination) vs. Base control scenario was evaluated on Mean difference in infected farms (Base vs Depopulation scenario) (Mean difference 2.36, 95% CI 2.22-2.49, p=<0.05). Tripling the number of daily depopulated and vaccinated farms eliminated foot-and-mouth disease epidemic trajectories within 15 days compared to 22 days in the base scenario.
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