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OBJECTIVE To estimate the mean lead‐time and rate of over‐detection associated with screening for prostate cancer with prostate‐specific antigen. METHODS Simulation models, fitted to the results of the Rotterdam section of the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer, were used to predict the mean lead‐time and over‐detection rate in population‐based screening programmes. RESULTS The mean lead‐time is estimated to be 11–12 years and over‐detection to occur in half the cases found by population screening. The estimates are compared with published estimates. CONCLUSION The effect of lead‐time and over‐detection on the balance of positive and negative consequences of screening cannot be neglected.
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Draisma et al. (2003) studied this question.
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