Global multi-ensemble approach for assessing the invasion potential of tropical fire ant in South Korea

Solenopsis geminata is an invasive ant species that primarily inhabits tropical regions and causes widespread damage owing to its aggressive expansion. Reports of invasion by this species are continuously increasing, indicating the need to prevent its introduction by predicting and identifying high-risk areas. In the present study, we developed multiple ensemble models using various integration methods for CLIMEX and MaxEnt to predict the global distribution of S. geminata . We then applied the developed model to South Korea, where there are continuous reports of S. geminata despite the absence of confirmed occurrence coordinates. The highest true skill statistics among the eight ensemble models was 0.77, showing potential distribution in North America, South America, South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Australia. In South Korea, regions with high habitat suitability were predicted along the southern coast, suggesting a high likelihood of establishment following introduction via international trading ports. This study provided spatial information necessary for the quarantine and control of S. geminata globally and in South Korea and proposed a methodology for integrating models with different scales of output indicators for pest prediction.