American Elite Views of Relations with the Soviet Union

This study examined American elite views of relations with the Soviet Union, and investigated the relative effects of respondents' views and certain kinds of evidence on policy responses to a hypothetical crisis in the Persian Gulf. Four orthogonal factors were found to describe current elite views: (1) support for detente, (2) support for deterrence, (3) assumptions of rationality and accuracy, and (4) rejection of a cold war perspective. Four kinds of evidence were manipulated in a hypothetical crisis scenario: (a) Soviet intentions, (b) the local conventional military balance, (c) the nuclear balance, and (d) the degree of U.S. interest in the region. All belief factors and all four kinds of evidence were found to influence the policy responses in meaningful ways. However, for all policy items, the belief factors accounted for a greater proportion of the variance. These results provide qualified support for the idea that policy responses directed toward managing an adversary are significantly “theory driven.”