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May 21, 2026Scientific ReportsOpen Access

Analysis, control, and forecasting the dynamics of SIRD models with saturated treatment and nonlinear incidence

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Authors

AEAmr ElsonbatyPrince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz UniversityRRRajagopalan RamaswamyPrince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz UniversitySPS. PadmajaPrince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University

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Implication

Randomized trial analyzes complex epidemic dynamics in SIRD models, suggesting optimized control strategies for public health.

Key Points

  • This study aims to analyze and forecast epidemic dynamics using a novel SIRD model that incorporates nonlinear incidence and treatment factors.
  • Introduced a SIRD model incorporating nonlinear incidence and saturated treatment.
  • Applied Pontryagin's Maximum Principle for optimal control strategies.
  • Developed a Logistic-Map Reservoir Computer (LMRC) for real-time forecasting.
  • Validated the model's predictions through numerical simulations, revealing stable limit cycles and chaotic behaviors.
  • Showed that the new control strategies can effectively mitigate disease burden.
  • Demonstrated that the approach provides valuable insights for public health policymakers.

Cite This Study

Elsonbaty et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0ea074be05d6e3efb5f326https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-52772-5
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