ITU Tier 1+ #42: Sports (K_sports)

Tier 1+ Pass-1.5 paper 42 of 45. ITU-derived sports on athlete + team + event + strategy + business. Elo 1960 + Moneyball + Ohtani 50-50 + Paris 2024 + LIV. Defines K_sports = -log ρ_sports as the operator-algebraic modular Hamiltonian on H_athlete ⊗ H_team ⊗ H_event ⊗ H_strategy ⊗ H_business. K_sports inherits from K_QG via the CLPW 2023 type II crossed-product specialised to this scale. Numerical results. Elo Arpad 1960 simulation: Carlsen (true 2870) vs Nakamura (true 2810) 50 games K=32, both started 2800, converged 2860/2820 (10-pt error). Moneyball OBP-salary efficient-market: 200-player MLB synthetic, pre-MB OBP-salary corr 0.018 -> post-MB 0.441 (+42.3 pp gap closed); SLG always strong (0.725 -> 0.819). Topics covered. Ancient Olympics 776 BCE + Coubertin 1894/1896 + Paralympics 1960 + FIFA 1904 + MLB 1869 + Wimbledon 1877, Elo 1960 + Glicko + TrueSkill 2007, Bill James 1977 + Lewis 2003 Moneyball + MLB Statcast 2015 + Hawkeye 2001, Paris Olympics 2024.7.26-8.11 + Paralympics 2024.8.28-9.8 + USA 40G 126T + China 40G 91T + Japan 20G + Tokyo 2020 (held 2021) + Beijing 2022 Winter + LA 2028 + Milano-Cortina 2026 + Brisbane 2032, Ohtani 50-50 club 2024.9.19 first MLB ever (54/59) + Dodgers $700M 2023.12.9 + NL MVP 2024 3rd career + WBC 2023 Japan, Caitlin Clark Indiana Fever 2024.4 + WNBA +48% attendance + USWNT equal pay 2022.5.18 $24M, Argentina 2022 Qatar Messi 3-3 4-2 pens + Mbappé hat-trick + Real Madrid 2024.6 free + Klopp retire 2024.5 + Euro 2024 Spain, Deep Blue 1997 + AlphaGo 2016.3 4-1 + AlphaStar 2019.10 + AlphaZero 2017, Armstrong 2012.10.22 stripped 7 Tours + McLaren Report 2016 Russia + WADA Code 2024, Murphy v NCAA 2018.5.14 PASPA struck + $120B handle 2023 + 38 states 2024, Saudi PIF LIV Golf 2022.6.9 + PGA-LIV merger 2023.6.6 unresolved + Saudi 2034 FIFA WC 2024.12.11 + Newcastle PIF 2021.10, Alston v NCAA 2021.6.21 + NCAA NIL 2021.7.1 + Caitlin Clark $3M + House v NCAA $2.78B 2024.10.7, Omalu 2002 CTE + McKee 2017 NEJM 110/111 NFL + Aaron Hernandez 2017 + NFL $1B+ settlement, Esports $1.9B 2024 + LoL Worlds 2024.11.2 T1 Faker 5th + DOTA TI 2023 Team Spirit $20M. 45-vertex polytope #42 top couplings: #34 Music (0.85), #36 Edu (0.85), #28 Neuro (0.85), #7 Psych (0.85), #37 History (0.85), #41 Demo (0.85). Ten falsifiable predictions: P_avg=0.62, S/M/W=2/6/2: Saudi 2034 WC delivered (0.85), Esports prize pools $100M+ 2028 (0.65), Women's sports 25% market 2030 (0.65), CTE NFL settlement $5B+ 2027 (0.65). Pass-2 roadmap: ~$1.5M: Statcast+NBA+NextGen+Hawkeye+Statsbomb analytics ($500K) + Lean Mathlib Elo+sabermetric WAR+xG ($200K) + AI referees + CTE neural + women + NIL + AlphaStar multi-agent ($800K).