Supply Chain Risk Management, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM), Resilience, Paper Industry

This study addresses a critical gap in supply chain risk management (SCRM) literature by developing a context-sensitive, hierarchical risk model for the paper and cardboard industry in Isfahan Province, Iran a sector operating under international economic sanctions, resource scarcity, and infrastructural constraints that render generic frameworks inadequate. A sequential exploratory mixed-methods design was employed. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 14 purposively selected industry experts possessing minimum ten years of experience in supply chain, production, logistics, and risk management roles. Thematic analysis, following Braun and Clarke's six-phase framework supported by MAXQDA software, identified eight primary risk categories. In the quantitative-analytical phase, Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) established contextual relationships among these risks through dual-validation involving expert consensus and theoretical grounding. The resulting Structural Self-Interaction Matrix was converted into a reachability matrix, and iterative level partitioning generated a five-level hierarchical structure. The eight risk categories identified were: External, Strategic, Supplier, Information Technology (IT), Operational, Logistics, Human Resources (HR), and Market risks. ISM analysis positioned External risks (Level V) and Strategic risks (Level IV) as fundamental drivers with highest driving power and lowest dependence. Supplier and IT risks (Level III) functioned as critical enabling factors, Operational risks (Level II) as mediating variables, and Logistics, HR, and Market risks (Level I) as dependent outcomes visible symptoms of higher-level failures. MICMAC analysis corroborated this structure, revealing an intensely interconnected risk system. The model provides managers a diagnostic tool for prioritizing interventions based on causal influence, advocating proactive root-cause resilience through strategic flexibility, supplier diversification, digital infrastructure, and decentralized decision-making. For policymakers, findings underscore macroeconomic stabilization, public infrastructure investment, and sector-specific support mechanisms. This study contributes a contextualized, hierarchical SCRM framework for Iran’s paper industry, providing a structured validation of risk propagation dynamics under economic sanctions and resource scarcity. While circular economy and lean principles informed the research context, the final model focuses on eight empirically derived risk categories, offering a practical diagnostic tool for managers and policymakers.