Reinforcing Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises’ Resilience to Future Disruptions: A Novel Decision-Making Framework for Supply Chain Risk Quantification

This study evaluates the overall risk exposure of manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises’ supply chains (SMESC) during plausible disruption scenarios, particularly in emerging economies where disruptions can have severe consequences. It develops a holistic, systematic, and quantitative framework to empower SMEs to assess and manage supply chain risks (SCR) effectively, thereby enhancing resilience and ensuring business continuity. A comprehensive literature review and expert consultations were undertaken to identify potential hazards. An integrated Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)-Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment (HIRA) methodology was employed, where AHP determined hazard weights and HIRA evaluated overall risk levels. The framework was illustrated through a case study of a manufacturing SME in India. The results revealed that SMESC are highly vulnerable to disruptions, reflected by an overall risk score of 63.476%. Key hazards included the scarcity of raw materials, distribution network breakdowns, and inventory stockouts, with procurement and production activities being particularly susceptible. The findings offer critical insights for managers and policymakers to proactively manage risks and bolster the resilience of SMESC in emerging economies. This research addresses existing gaps by proposing a structured and problem-driven integration of AHP and HIRA, enabling SMEs to quantify and prioritize both internal and external SCR. The combination of expert-driven weighting (AHP) and scenario-based risk scoring (HIRA) offers a practical decision-support framework suiting contexts with limited historical data and high uncertainty.