Code red worm propagation modeling and analysis

The Code Red worm incident of July 2001 has stimulated activities to model and analyze Internet worm propagation. In this paper we provide a careful analysis of Code Red propagation by accounting for two factors: one is the dynamic countermeasures taken by ISPs and users; the other is the slowed down worm infection rate because Code Red rampant propagation caused congestion and troubles to some routers. Based on the classical epidemic Kermack-Mckendrick model, we derive a general Internet worm model called the two-factor worm model. Simulations and numerical solutions of the two-factor worm model match the observed data of Code Red worm better than previous models do. This model leads to a better understanding and prediction of the scale and speed of Internet worm spreading.