E-Commerce in the Context of Declining State Sales Tax Bases

This paper extends the quantitative estimates of sales tax revenue losses from electronic commerce in a variety of ways. First, we place the effects of e—commerce in the context of general sales tax base trends, arguing that e—commerce is only one of the factors reducing sales tax bases. Second, we take a forward looking view, estimating both the current losses and the expected losses several years hence. Third, we estimate the revenue—neutral increases in state sales tax rates that will become necessary to offset the base declines. Revenue loss estimates are prepared for every state with a sales tax. Our baseline estimates suggest that e—commerce will cause about $10.8 billion in additional tax revenue losses nationwide in 2003.