Predicting kidney replacement therapy, cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in advanced chronic kidney disease among the Chinese population

Figures

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  Figure 1.. Calibration plots of the two-year and four-year Grams models before and after updating. The predicted probability is shown on the x-axis and the observed probability is given on the y-axis. The dotted 45°line represents perfect agreement between predicted and observed probability. The triangles represent a quintile of the validation population, ranked by predicted probability. Error bars represent 95% confidence intervals. Ratios of observed and expected outcomes were also been calculated to assess the calibration in large. (A) The calibration of predicting kidney replacement therapy before recalibration; (B) the calibration of predicting cardiovascular disease before recalibration; (C) the calibration of predicting death before recalibration; (D) the calibration of predicting kidney replacement therapy after recalibration; (E) the calibration of predicting cardiovascular disease after recalibration; and (F) the calibration of predicting death after recalibration. KRT: kidney replacement therapy; CVD: cardiovascular disease; O/E ratio: ratio of observed and expected outcomes; CI: confidence interval.

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  Figure 2.. Relative importance of the predictors in the Grams model and other predictors. X-axis represents the relative importance of the predictors using R2, Y-axis represents all predictors. The length of the bar represents the importance of the predictors. Red bars represent predictors not included in the Grams model and blue bars represent the predictors in the Grams model. (A) Relative importance of the predictors for KRT; (B) relative importance of the predictors for CVD; and (C) relative importance of the predictors for death. KRT: kidney replacement therapy; CVD: cardiovascular disease.

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  Figure 3.. Receiver operation characteristic analysis comparing the performance of new models and Grams model. (A) ROC curves for two-year KRT; (B) ROC curves for two-year CVD; (C) ROC curves for two-year death; (D) ROC curves for four-year KRT; (E) ROC curves for four-year CVD; and (F) ROC curves for four-year death. ROC: receiver operation characteristic; KRT: kidney replacement therapy; CVD: cardiovascular disease.