Predicting Success or Failure on Probation: Factors Associated with Felony Probation Outcomes

This study examined the factors associated with success or failure on probation for 2,850 North Carolina felony probationers who were removed from supervision between July 1 and October 31, 1993. Probationers were profiled on various demographic, sentence, and probation characteristics. Chi-square analysis was used to determine differences within various subgroups of the sample, and logistic regression was used to predict failure on probation in two separate models. The findings suggest that risk assessment items used by probation officers to determine level of supervision for probationers perform well in a logistic regression equation.