Trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services and their driving factors in the Aksu River Basin

Understanding the trade-offs, synergies, and drivers of ecosystem services (ESs) is essential for ecological security in arid inland basins. This study focuses on the Aksu River Basin and uses remote sensing, GIS, and the InVEST model to assess four key ESs—soil conservation, carbon storage, habitat quality, and food production—between 2000 and 2020. The results reveal significant land-use changes, including increases in cropland and construction land, and decreases in forest, grassland, and water bodies. Soil conservation, carbon storage, and food production first increased and then declined, while habitat quality showed a continuous decline. There was a growing synergy between soil conservation and carbon storage, but the trade-off between habitat quality and food production became more pronounced. Geographical Detector analysis identified NDVI, precipitation, and temperature as key drivers, with NDVI promoting synergies among multiple ESs. Interactions among factors explained ES relationships more effectively than individual variables. These findings provide a scientific basis for ecological protection and sustainable land-use planning in arid regions.