Trends, drivers, and reduction pathways for food-related greenhouse gas emissions in China: 1961–2050

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from China’s food system are a major environmental concern; however, studies quantifying their drivers and future projections remain limited. This study uses structural decomposition analysis and growth curve models to assess food-related GHG trends from 1961 to 2020, identify key drivers and their contributions, and project emissions for 2050 under six economic and population scenarios. It also proposes reduction pathways to help China achieve its 2060 carbon neutrality goal. Animal and plant foods are categorized into 14 groups based on the similarity of their emission coefficients. China’s total food-related GHG emissions rose tenfold, from 351.7 to 3 719.8 million tons CO2-equivalent (CO2e)/year, between 1961 and 2020. Per-capita emissions increased from 532.1 to 2 584.4 kg CO2e/year. Emissions from plant-based foods grew from 435.0 to 824.6 kg CO2e/year, while animal-based emissions surged from 97.1 to 1 759.8 kg CO2e/year, with animal products contributing more owing to their higher emission coefficients. Key drivers include rising food intake, increasing demand for animal-based foods (especially red meat), and population growth. Scenario analyses predict that emissions will peak at 3 826.2 million tons CO2e/year in 2031 (low economy-low population) and 3 971.0 million tons CO2e/year in 2039 (high economy-medium population). Compared with Australian, Indian, and Japanese diets, Chinese diets exhibit lower per-capita emissions than Australia and India but have higher emissions than in Japan. Adhering to China’s national dietary guidelines could reduce Chinese per-capita food-related GHGs by 31.5%, and optimized diets could lower them by 45.3%. This study provides valuable insights for Chinese policymakers to reduce food-related GHG emissions, refine national dietary guidelines, and raise public awareness regarding the food system’s environmental impact, thus encouraging people to follow sustainable diets.