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BACKGROUND/AIMS: Dose-finding trials can be conducted such that patients are first stratified into multiple risk groups before doses are allocated. The risk groups are often completely ordered in that, for a fixed dose, the probability of toxicity is monotonically increasing across groups. In some trials, the groups are only partially ordered. For example, one of several groups in a trial may be known to have the least risk of toxicity for a given dose, but the ordering of the risk among the remaining groups may not be known. The aim of the article is to introduce a method for designing dose-finding trials of cytotoxic agents in completely or partially ordered groups of patients. METHODS: This article presents a method for dose-finding that combines previously proposed mathematical models, augmented with results using order restricted inference. The resulting method is computationally convenient and allows for dose-finding in trials with completely or partially ordered groups. Extensive simulations are done to evaluate the performance of the method, using randomly generated dose-toxicity curves where, within each group, the risk of toxicity is an increasing function of dose. RESULTS: Our simulations show that the hybrid method, in which order-restricted estimation is applied to parameters of a parsimonious mathematical model, gives results that are similar to previously proposed methods for completely ordered groups. Our method generalizes to a wide range of partial orders among the groups. CONCLUSION: The problem of dose-finding in partially ordered groups has not been extensively studied in the statistical literature. The proposed method is computationally feasible, and provides a potential solution to the design of dose-finding studies in completely or partially ordered groups.
Mark R. Conaway (Fri,) studied this question.