What question did this study set out to answer?

To develop and validate a simple clinical risk index to predict in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit duration, and overall postoperative length of stay following cardiac surgery.

February 1, 1995Circulation

Multicenter Validation of a Risk Index for Mortality, Intensive Care Unit Stay, and Overall Hospital Length of Stay After Cardiac Surgery

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Why the study?

Does a six-variable risk index predict mortality and length of stay in patients undergoing cardiac surgery?

Population

13,098 patients undergoing cardiac surgery at nine adult cardiac surgery institutions in Ontario, Canada

Design

Cohort

Follow-up

In-hospital

Authors

JTJack V. TuHeart Failure & Transplant SJSusan JaglalUniversity Health Network CNC. David NaylorAmarillo College

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

May aid postoperative risk stratification in cardiac surgery; leaves open external validation before clinical adoption.

Key Points

To develop and validate a simple clinical risk index to predict in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit duration, and overall postoperative length of stay following cardiac surgery.
Multicenter population-based study of N=13,098 adult cardiac surgery patients across all nine cardiac surgery institutions in Ontario, Canada.
A six-variable risk model incorporating age, sex, left ventricular function, surgery type, urgency, and repeat operation was developed using logistic regression in a derivation cohort (N=6,213) and evaluated in an independent validation cohort (N=6,885).
The index predicted in-hospital mortality with an area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.75 in the validation cohort.
Prolonged intensive care unit stay (≥6 days) and prolonged postoperative length of stay (≥17 days) were predicted with AUCs of 0.66 and 0.69, respectively.
Higher risk index scores were consistently associated with higher mortality rates and prolonged intensive care and hospital stays across all nine centers.

Structured PICO

Does a six-variable risk index predict mortality and length of stay in patients undergoing cardiac surgery?

Population

13,098 patients undergoing cardiac surgery at nine adult cardiac surgery institutions in Ontario, Canada (derivation set n=6,213; validation set n=6,885)

Intervention

Six-variable risk index (age, sex, left ventricular function, type of surgery, urgency of surgery, and repeat operation)

Outcome

In-hospital mortality, ICU stay in days, and postoperative stay in dayshard clinical

A simple six-variable risk index effectively predicts mortality and length of stay after cardiac surgery, providing a tool for risk stratification and resource comparison.

Cite This Study

Tu et al. (1995) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0fa2062badbc352afe758b https://doi.org/10.1161/01.cir.91.3.677

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Multicenter Validation of a Risk Index for Mortality, Intensive Care Unit Stay, and Overall Hospital Length of Stay After Cardiac Surgery

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Structured PICO

Cite This Study

Multicenter Validation of a Risk Index for Mortality, Intensive Care Unit Stay, and Overall Hospital Length of Stay After Cardiac Surgery

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Structured PICO

Cite This Study

Also Consider

Also Consider