A 7-variable nomogram incorporating age, operative time, left atrial diameter, mean arterial pressure, BMI, insulin use, and statin use predicted postoperative atrial fibrillation after CABG with an AUC of 0.727.
Cohort (n=397)
No
Can a nomogram predict postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting?
A nomogram based on preoperative variables can predict the risk of atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting with moderate discrimination.
OBJECTIVE: Using the nomogram to intuitively predict atrial fibrillation after coronary artery bypass grafting. Identify high-risk patients with atrial fibrillation and provide preoperative protective therapy. METHODS: A total of 397 patients that underwent coronary artery bypass grafting were consecutively enrolled. Independent predictors of patients were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression. Two nomograms were constructed to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation. RESULTS: , Insulins, and Statins were independently associated with atrial fibrillation after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. The nomogram of postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients was constructed using total predictor variables (AUC = 0.727, 95% CI 0.673-0.781). The model was internally validated (AUC = 0.701) by K-fold Cross-validation resampling (K = 5, Times = 400). To make an early intervention, the intraoperative information of the patients was excluded. Only 6 variables before surgery were used to establish the brief nomogram to predict postoperative atrial fibrillation (AUC = 0.707, 95% CI 0.651-0.764). The brief model was internally validated (AUC = 0.683) by resampling with K-fold Cross-validation resampling. CONCLUSIONS: These two nomograms could be used to predict patients at high risk for atrial fibrillation after isolated coronary artery bypass grafting.
Gong et al. (2022) conducted a cohort in Patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (n=397). 7-variable nomogram was evaluated on Predictive performance (AUC) of the nomogram for postoperative atrial fibrillation (95% CI 0.673-0.781). A 7-variable nomogram incorporating age, operative time, left atrial diameter, mean arterial pressure, BMI, insulin use, and statin use predicted postoperative atrial fibrillation after CABG with an AUC of 0.727.