Machine Learning-Driven Prediction of Plant Water Potential in Kiwifruit Under Mediterranean Conditions

Kiwifruit (Actinidia deliciosa cv. Hayward) is a high-demand crop due to its nutritional value. Climate change increasingly challenges its cultivation, particularly under Mediterranean conditions, due to limited water resources. Therefore, the early detection of water stress onset is crucial for optimizing irrigation water use and enhancing kiwi productivity. In this context, advanced sensors capable of continuously monitoring critical hydrodynamic parameters, combined with machine learning approaches, offer a promising solution for reliable prediction of plant water status, supporting irrigation decision-making systems. This study develops and evaluates machine learning (ML) models to predict trunk water potential (Ψtrunk), integrating soil moisture, climatic variables, and plant-based measurements, including sap flow. Various machine learning models were evaluated including Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), using soil moisture, trunk water potential (Ψtrunk), sap flow, and microclimatic variables (relative humidity, wind speed, temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and reference evapotranspiration). Among the tested models, XGBoost demonstrated the best performance, achieving an accuracy of approximately 0.80, followed by Ridge, Lasso and SVM, which showed similar accuracy.