Investigating the Drivers and Mechanisms Behind the Spatial Evolution of Regional Green Spaces Using Geographically Weighted Regression: A Case Study of Rapidly Urbanizing Regions

Non-built-up green areas are essential for preserving the ecological functions of cities and fostering sustainable growth. Focusing on Shanghai, we developed a comprehensive framework of driving forces that integrates socioeconomic, natural, policy, and financial indicators. To assess the spatial-temporal changes in regional green space configurations and their underlying mechanisms between 2000 and 2020, we utilized stepwise regression alongside Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) techniques. The results show that regional green space exhibited a clear stage-dependent evolution, with the total area decreasing from 580.56 km2 in 2000 to 506.43 km2 in 2005 and then increasing continuously to 905.70 km2 in 2020. Forest land consistently expanded and became the dominant land type, while wetland showed a “decrease–increase” pattern and grassland experienced an early decline followed by partial recovery. The primary elements driving these changes underwent substantial transformations over the study period. During the initial phase, socioeconomic variables, particularly real estate investments (β = −0.296), demonstrated pronounced adverse impacts. Conversely, post-2005, financial allocations for landscaping and policy interventions emerged as the main favorable drivers (β = 0.598). Furthermore, environmental aspects like NDVI and waterway density provided a continuous positive influence on green space enlargement. Certain socioeconomic indicators, notably population density, transitioned from exerting adverse impacts to having beneficial effects during the latter periods. The primary drivers demonstrated considerable spatial variation; socioeconomic impacts were largely localized in regions undergoing urban growth, whereas environmental and policy variables exerted broader and more consistent influences. Overall, these outcomes highlight a shift from a socioeconomic-dominated evolutionary process to one governed by a synergy of multiple factors. This offers a theoretical foundation for refining urban ecological strategies and harmonizing city expansion with ecological conservation.