Potential Spatiotemporal Variability for Meteorological Drought in Anbar Governorate, Iraq Using CMIP6 Models

This study proposes a framework for examining the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in Anbar Governorate, Iraq, for both historical and future periods, using LARS-WG, five CMIP6 GCMs (SSP245 and SSP585), a Drought Index Calculator, and GIS tools. The Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI-12) was used to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of drought frequency and severity at seven meteorological stations between 1985 and 2015 and between 2021 and 2040. The main conclusions from the study included that LARS-WG performs successfully for climatic factor projection. The general average level of drought expected will be ``near-normal dry'', while the maximum drought level expected will be ``severely dry''. The near-normal drought category had the highest drought frequency in both the past and future scenarios. The highest values of drought intensity and frequency (severely) were recorded at Rutba Station, with a frequency of 4, and a recurrence rate of 13.33% for the baseline period. For both the first and second future scenarios, Haditha and Anah Stations will report the highest percentage of the moderate drought category (with drought frequency of 4 and recurrence rate of 21.05% for both stations).