Operational analysis of Hopa Port: performance, dependencies, and challenges (2021–2023)

Purpose This study examines the operational performance, dependency risks, and structural vulnerabilities of Hopa Port between 2021 and 2023. As a medium-sized Black Sea port exposed to geopolitical shocks and market volatility, Hopa represents a critical case for understanding fragility in secondary ports. Design/methodology/approach Using official port records, the study applies descriptive statistics, concentration indices (CR5, HHI), volatility measures, correlation analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations to assess throughput dynamics, cargo dependency, and downside risk. Scenario-based projections are used to evaluate the potential impact of strategic interventions. Findings Results reveal extreme import dependence, a near-total collapse of exports, and a high concentration level (CR5 = 76.8%), leading to a trade imbalance of 248.6:1. Throughput volatility intensified, while coal emerged as the dominant risk factor (r = 0.854). Simulations confirm significant downside exposure and highlight that diversification is essential for resilience. Research limitations/implications The analysis covers a three-year period and excludes revenue and multi-port comparison data. However, it provides a scalable model for future studies on port resilience and risk exposure in emerging markets. Practical implications The findings emphasize the need for export development, portfolio diversification, and proactive risk governance to stabilize operations and reduce vulnerability. Social implications Structural weaknesses in the port's cargo profile may limit employment, regional development, and economic resilience. Addressing these risks can support more balanced and sustainable coastal economies. Originality/value This paper provides a rare risk-focused empirical assessment of a secondary Turkish port and introduces a methodological framework that can be adapted to similar under-analyzed ports in emerging economies.