Multi-scenario prediction analysis of environment-industry synergy in the Yellow River Basin

The dual pressures of approaching ecological carrying capacity thresholds and the disorderly expansion of industrial space have intensified the deep-seated contradictions between the environment and industry in the Yellow River Basin, highlighting the critical importance of environmental-industrial synergy under the framework of ecological security. Based on the strategic vision for high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, this study constructs a collaborative framework for an“environment-industry composite system”and establishes three scenarios—baseline, environment-first, and industry-first—to explore the trends in the coordinated evolution of the environment and industry in the Yellow River Basin from 2030 to 2050 through multi-scenario analysis. The results indicate: ①The environmental and industrial subsystems in the Yellow River Basin exhibit a dichotomous paradox where“ecological priority restricts industry, while industrial priority leads to environmental overload,” which is essentially a spatial projection of the imbalance in ecological resilience and the contradictions in industrial development. ②Under the three scenarios, the co-evolution of the environment and industry in the Yellow River Basin exhibits typical characteristics of“imbalanced baseline structure, phased environmental optimization, and locked-in industrial overload.”This essentially represents a compound crisis involving the breach of ecological thresholds, technological path dependence, and lagging institutional supply. Based on this, the study proposes response strategies including zone-specific precise regulation, regionally targeted support, the formulation of dynamic policies, and the establishment of a third-party evaluation system.