Dynamic system analysis of key indicators for Green and Climate-Smart Mining (GCSM) within a sustainable governance framework: A focus on the cobalt value chain

Global demand for critical minerals is rapidly increasing as economies transition toward low-carbon technologies. This shift intensifies pressure on mining systems to ensure sustainability, climate resilience, and strong governance performance, particularly in strategic mineral value chains such as cobalt. Despite significant advancements in green and climate-smart mining frameworks, the interaction between sustainability indicators and national mining governance remains poorly understood. There is a need for a holistic model capable of integrating environmental, technological, and policy dimensions to support climate-resilient mining strategies. This study aims to investigate how the integration of key sustainability and governance indicators contributes to green and climate-smart mining (GCSM) within a national framework. We hypothesize that incorporating resource and energy efficiency; renewable energy adoption; circular economy practices; carbon finance; waste management innovation; and strengthened regulatory systems will significantly enhance overall governance performance in the mining sector. A system dynamics modeling approach was used to examine the interconnected effects of 15 indicators on mining governance. The model incorporates production, demand, and climate-risk dimensions, supported by value chain analysis of cobalt under market and environmental conditions from 2020 to 2024. Simulation outcomes project a 5.5–6-fold improvement in national mining governance by 2030 under integrated indicator implementation. Results further indicate that cobalt production must increase from 0.814 to 3.62 units—approximately a 4.4-fold expansion—to meet future demand, requiring substantial enhancement in exploration and extraction capacity. These results highlight the importance of supply chain diversification, technology integration (AI, IoT), process automation, and adaptive management strategies to address market variability and climate-related risks. The findings underline the strategic importance of scaling sustainable mining investments, adopting circular resource flows, and improving national transparency through spatial mining policies. Strengthened international cooperation, improved geological data management, and resilient governance frameworks are essential for securing a stable low-carbon mineral supply. This study provides a systematic pathway for aligning mining policies with global sustainability priorities to enhance sectoral resilience, operational efficiency, and long-term governance stability.