Study on Subsidence Characteristics and Influencing Factors in the Haikou–Laocheng Area Based on Time-Series InSAR

Land subsidence is an important challenge faced by coastal cities under rapid urban development. This study focuses on the Haikou–Laocheng area and conducts time-series monitoring of land subsidence using PS-InSAR and SBAS-InSAR based on 42 Sentinel-1 SAR scenes acquired from April 2023 to April 2025, thereby deriving the spatial distribution of cumulative subsidence rates and the evolution patterns of multi-temporal cumulative subsidence. Because only ascending-orbit Sentinel-1 data were used, the reported deformation values are vertical-projected estimates converted from line-of-sight (LOS) displacement under the assumption that horizontal motion is negligible. The reliability of the monitoring results is evaluated through cross-validation between the two methods, assessing their inter-method consistency. The results indicate that the study area is dominated by slight subsidence, with vertical-projected subsidence rates mainly ranging from −6 to 3.7 mm/y, while a few uplift points are locally observed, forming an overall “stable with localized anomalies” deformation pattern. PS-InSAR and SBAS-InSAR show good consistency in overall trends, and both identify a pronounced subsidence bowl in the southwestern part of the study area, where the peak vertical-projected subsidence rates reach −25.1 mm/y and −35.1 mm/y, respectively, with outward banded attenuation. The results suggest that land subsidence in the study area is influenced by both natural factors and human activities. Specifically, rainfall shows a non-synchronous, stage-wise modulation relationship with subsidence evolution, and most high-subsidence zones are distributed in impervious surfaces such as built-up land and transportation corridors, or in low-elevation areas such as farmland. In terms of geological factors, thick, highly compressible soft soils are the primary geological control on the continued development of subsidence. These findings can provide scientific references for the prevention and control of abnormal subsidence and for urban planning and development in the Haikou–Laocheng area. The strengthened discussion clarifies the research gap, planning significance, and limitations of applying dual time-series InSAR in a data-scarce tropical coastal soft-soil setting.