Assessment of Buildings' Energy-Saving Strategies Resilience to Climate Change: The Case of Mediterranean Climate

The Earth's climate is changing, and projections indicate that global warming will continue throughout this century, leading to increased occurrences of extreme temperatures. This raises critical questions about the performance and resilience of different energy-saving design strategies in buildings under future climatic conditions. To address this, the present study investigates the impact of passive design strategies, including building orientation, window-to-wall ratio, south and east/west shading devices, and thermal insulation on a prototype building's energy performance across four timeframes: 2002, 2020, 2050, and 2080, using validated computer-based thermal simulations. The results indicate that individual strategies vary significantly in their effectiveness, with thermal insulation showing the greatest energy savings, followed by WWR optimization, east/west shading, south shading, and finally optimal building orientation. Furthermore, a simple economic analysis highlights that future energy price escalations significantly amplify the monetary benefits of early adoption of green design strategies. These findings also underscore the importance of adopting holistic, climate-responsive design approaches that integrate multiple passive measures rather than a single strategy.