Assessing the Climate Robustness of Residential Shading Devices across Multiple Climate Zones under Future Climate Scenarios

Climate change is the most critical environmental phenomenon humanity is facing in recent and coming decades, and its impacts are intensifying heat waves and increasing cooling energy demand. In this context, shading devices emerge as essential low-cost passive strategy to mitigate overheating and maintaining indoor thermal comfort. This study assesses the climate robustness, energy, and thermal performance of residential shading devices across multiple Algerian climate zones, Mediterranean (Csa), semi-arid (BSk, BSh), and hot desert climate (BWh), under both historical and future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for mid- and end-century horizons). Using EnergyPlus dynamic simulations, validated through ASHRAE Guideline 14 and optimized via the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II), fourteen shading configurations were tested in combination with single and double low-emissivity (Low-E) glazing and both conventional and insulated walls. The results reveal that combined 3D shading systems, such as egg-crate and overhangs combined with side fins, achieve the highest cuts in solar gains, up to 60–80% when coupled with double Low-E glazing. Conversely, simple single-element devices, such as basic overhangs or side fins, show lower performance and reduced stability under future extreme arid conditions. A Composite Robustness Index (CRI) constructed through an equally weighted additive aggregation of variance, interquartile range, coherence, and percentile metrics, demonstrates that combined and deeper shading devices maintain consistently higher robustness under future climate conditions. The findings affirm that adaptive shading design is crucial for residential buildings under projected climate conditions. Integrating shading with appropriate insulated envelopes can substantially enhance resilience, reduce cooling energy demand, and support a smooth transition toward low-carbon, and climate-responsive architecture in Mediterranean and North African cities.