Balancing job creation and job loss in China’s low-carbon power shift: Insights into formal and informal employment

This study explores the employment impact of China’s low-carbon power transition, focusing on how different technological pathways influence both the scale and quality of jobs. The research addresses the twofold challenge of reducing carbon emissions while preserving labor market stability. The study employs an inter-sectoral flow model to break down the supply chain into manufacturing, construction and installation, operation and maintenance, and fuel provision segments, and also differentiates between registered (formal) and unregistered (informal) employment. The findings suggest that a coal-supported pathway not only extends fossil-related jobs, especially informal fuel-related employment, but also limits the development of higher-quality, formal jobs in renewables. In contrast, the fast non-fossil pathway leads to more significant employment increases in total, generates more formal jobs in technical and managerial roles, and is more compatible with long-term sustainability goals. Labor-intensive deployment phases are evident for renewable technologies such as wind and solar, while fossil fuel employment is progressively declining. The transition is not just about the number of jobs but also about the quality of jobs, according to these results. Policy considerations arising from the study underline the necessity of reskilling and upskilling measures, localizing renewable supply chains, labor formalization, and the provision of regional support that is targeted to constitute a just, inclusive, and sustainable energy transition in China. • Study assesses job impacts of China’s low-carbon power transition. • Fast non-fossil pathway creates more and higher-quality formal jobs. • Coal-based paths preserve informal fossil fuel employment. • Renewables drive labor-intensive jobs in deployment phases. • Policies must support reskilling and a just energy transition.