Scenario-Based Assessment of Carbon Stocks and Mitigation Potential in Perigi, South Sumatra, Indonesia

Peatlands cover approximately 3% of the global land area but store about 44% of the world’s soil carbon, making them a major carbon sink. Indonesia alone accounts for about 37% of global tropical peat carbon stocks. However, large-scale carbon emissions caused by fires and drainage during past economic development have transformed peatlands from carbon sinks into carbon sources. In response, restoration efforts have been implemented at both international and national levels. Tropical peatland restoration typically includes rewetting, revegetation, and community-based approaches, highlighting the need for quantitative assessments of carbon storage under different restoration strategies. This study focuses on the Perigi peatland in South Sumatra, Indonesia. We conducted field surveys of vegetation and soils to estimate carbon stocks per unit area and developed time-series land cover maps using satellite imagery. Based on these data, we assessed potential carbon storage under different restoration intensity scenarios. The results show that carbon stocks in the Perigi peatland are lower than the Indonesian average. However, under a full restoration scenario, up to 950,259 tC of additional carbon storage is possible, indicating high restoration potential. In contrast, without restoration, further carbon emissions are likely, underscoring the necessity of restoration efforts. Effective restoration requires a phased strategy from vegetation recovery to peat layer recovery, combined with socioeconomic approaches that consider local livelihoods, enabling degraded tropical peatlands to function as effective carbon mitigation systems.