Panel data analysis reveals how house price changes impact SME lending and mortgages.
Using panel data for 304 local authorities in the UK from 2014 to 2021, we empirically examine three issues: (a) how booms in house prices affect bank lending to small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs); (b) whether these effects differ when SMEs hold larger amounts of real estate and buildings and (c) whether a rise in house prices can cause capital flight from the SME loan market to mortgages in the housing sector. We find that (i) a rise in house prices crowds out SME lending; (ii) mortgage lending increases with house prices; (iii) the crowding out effect of rising house prices on SME lending is mitigated when SMEs hold larger amounts of real estate and buildings. The main macroeconomic implication is that a strong housing market exerts negative spillover effects on the SME sector by moving capital away from SME lending towards housing mortgages.
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Siddiki et al. (2026) studied this question.
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