Interpretable Predictive Model and Multi-Factor Coupling Mechanism of Convective Heat Transfer on Heated Cylinders in Polar Marine Environments

In response to the problems of high energy consumption and difficulty in precise regulation of electric tracing anti-icing systems for polar marine engineering equipment in low-temperature, strong-wind, and high-humidity environments, this paper conducts experimental measurement and predictive modeling research on the convective heat transfer characteristics of electric heat-traced circular cylinders in cross-flow. First, a controllable environmental experimental system was set up to obtain 144 sets of steady-state convective heat transfer data under different combinations of wind speed, temperature, humidity, and heat flux density. Based on this, a Nusselt number (Nu) prediction model using a fully connected Deep Neural Network (DNN) was constructed, and its performance was evaluated through five-fold cross-validation. The results show that the DNN model can effectively capture nonlinear mapping relationships among multiple factors, and its prediction accuracy (R2 = 0.9828) is superior to that of traditional machine learning models. Furthermore, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) method was introduced to analyze the multi-factor coupling mechanisms, quantify the contribution of each input variable to the Nu prediction, and provide a data-driven reference for the optimization of engineering parameters under extreme polar conditions.