Media Violence, Antisocial Behavior, and the Social Consequences of Small Effects

This paper shows in practical, quantitative, yet intuitive terms just what the social consequences are likely to be of the “small effects” typically found in research on media violence and antisocial behavior. Estimates are provided for how well we can predict (a) adult antisocial behavior from childhood antisocial behavior; (b) current antisocial behavior from current exposure to media violence; (c) subsequent antisocial behavior from earlier exposure to media violence, adjusting for earlier levels of antisocial behavior; and (d) how much we can decrease antisocial behavior by means of special intervention. Although proportions of variance accounted for appeared low, the practical consequences associated with these estimates were found to be substantial.