A Gravity Model Study on the Impact of the Belt and Road Trade Facilitation on Agricultural Products Trade

In order to solve the problem that China's agricultural trade prospects in the "the Belt and Road economic belt" are unclear, this paper proposes a prediction system based on the stochastic frontier gravity model.This process examines the current situation of agricultural industry and the change of economic structure in China and the five Central Asian countries from three aspects of import and export. Model agricultural products and country models, and assess the agricultural potential of both sides in the current state. Comparative advantage index and market complementarity index are used to analyze competition and integration. Then, from the country level and product level of China's agricultural exports to the five Central Asian countries, the market analysis and market value calculation. The results show that in China's export market, the second type of agricultural products are mainly exported to the five Central Asian countries, accounting for more than 50%, and about 1/4% of the first and fourth types of agricultural products. ; The average export efficiency of China's agricultural products to the five Central Asian countries is 71.8%. The average import efficiency of agricultural products between China and the five Central Asian countries was 79.6%. This proves the reliability of the framework proposed in this paper for forecasting changes in China's agricultural and export markets through economic support.