Baseline assessment, value‐added and the prediction of reading

Value‐added approaches aim to make fair comparisons of the academic progress of pupils in different settings. They rest on measurements at two time points and it has been suggested that the assessment of 4‐year‐olds cannot provide a sufficiently strong base from which to make comparisons at the end of Key Stage 1. Data on a range of potential predictors from the Performance Indicators in Primary Schools (PIPS) are related to measures of reading and mathematics in Year 2. The questions addressed include: a) To what extent is it possible to predict the reading of 7‐year‐olds? b) Which measures of 4‐year‐olds are the most predictive of later success? c) What are the implications for baseline assessment nationally? The results suggest that on‐entry assessments, which last about 20 minutes, can predict the reading and mathematics scores of seven‐year‐olds with correlations around 0.7. Several measures are identified as potential predictors. The quickest to administer reliably include digit and letter identification, counting, writing and doing simple sums. The analysis suggests that value‐added measures are possible for schools but that individual pupil predictions remain problematic.