Early-Screening Programs: When is Predictive Accuracy Sufficient?

Review of the early-identification literature indicates considerable problems related to describing screening results and determining when a procedure accurately identifies students believed to be at-risk. Several criteria are proposed in this article for determining and communicating screening results. These criteria, which are applied to a screening program for illustrative purposes, provide a context for judging prediction accuracy. It is argued that accuracy of prediction is of little value and cannot be considered sufficient unless the predictions lead to better educational opportunities for the students about whom they are made.