A Predictive Model of Retention Rate at Regional Two-Year Colleges

Although much research has been conducted on the characteristics, covariates, and causes of individual student retention, scant research has focused on campus-wide retention rate. The author analyzed first-year retention rates for the 16 colleges of the South Carolina Technical College System. Two cohorts from each college were studied: first-time freshmen enrolling full-time during the 1990 fall semester and a similarly defined 1991 cohort. College management and fiscal policy variables (internal measures) as well as regional demographic and economic variables (external measures) are analyzed in terms of their efficacy in predicting retention ate. An optimal predictive model is derived, revealing that two-thirds of retention rate variance is explained by two variables: (a) regional employment per capital and (b) the ratio of instruction and academic support expenditures per student to regional income per job. Implications for college administrators and policymakers are discussed.