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Recent Arctic sea ice retreat indicates that the Russian coastal seas encompassing the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will be among the first marine environments to transition to a summer ice-free state. Forty-six voyages carrying 1.26 million tons of cargo in 2012 suggest increasing economic viability of the NSR for eastward transport of natural resources from northern Norway and Russia. However, considerable uncertainty remains about the near-term length and variability of the navigation season, and shelf bathymetry presents a critical constraint limiting vessel draft and cargo capacity. This paper aims to quantify the length and variability of the NSR navigation season as constrained by both sea ice and bathymetry over the next 15 years. We present simulations of accessibility to the Russian maritime Arctic by Polar Class and nonice-strengthened vessels, as based on CCSM4 daily projections of sea ice concentration and thickness averaged for 2013–2027. Results indicate strong navigation uncertainties in the Kara, Laptev, and East Siberian Seas, while destinational shipping to the Barents and Chukchi Seas will be relatively unencumbered by ice. Shallow-draft ships may be required for maximum utilization of the navigation season for full NSR transits. This study can be viewed as support to strategic planning in identifying key navigational challenges and opportunities along the NSR.
Stephenson et al. (Fri,) studied this question.