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December 1, 1988American Journal of Public Health229 citationsOpen Access

Evidence and scientific research.

SGSteven N. GoodmanRRRichard M. Royall

Key Points

  • This commentary aims to explore the shortcomings of p-values and emphasizes the importance of measuring evidence correctly.
  • Reviews arguments about p-values from various forums.
  • Presents mathematics and logic behind evidential theory.
  • Compares traditional and evidential methods using examples.
  • Highlights that arguments about p-values often miss the concept of evidence.
  • Demonstrates how misunderstanding of evidence contributes to contradictory views on p-values.

Abstract

This commentary reviews the arguments for and against the use of p-values put forward in the Journal and other forums, and shows that they are all missing both a measure and concept of "evidence." The mathematics and logic of evidential theory are presented, with the log-likelihood ratio used as the measure of evidence. The profoundly different philosophy behind evidential methods (as compared to traditional ones) is presented, as well as a comparative example showing the difference between the two approaches. The reasons why we mistakenly ascribe evidential meaning to p-values and related measures are discussed. Unfamiliarity with the technology and philosophy of evidence is seen as the main reason why certain arguments about p-values persist, and why they are frequently contradictory and confusing.

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Cite This Study

Goodman et al. (1988) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a10c05dd06b5b96589f70c1https://doi.org/10.2105/ajph.78.12.1568
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