Ethnicity and Ageing in Indonesia, 2000–2050

This paper examines and projects the dynamics of ageing in the five largest ethnic groups in Indonesia. Indonesia as a whole has been undergoing its second demographic transition since 2000–2005 and opened the demographic window of opportunity in 2005. However, the timing of the two events is very different in each ethnic group. The differences may necessitate different ageing policies. If not managed wisely, they could result in ethnic conflicts, especially if Indonesia follows the slower decline fertility scenario. The paper projects the timing of the demographic window of opportunity and second demographic transition for each of the five ethnic groups. It utilizes the 2000 population census data set—the first census/survey to collect information on ethnicity since the 1930 census.