Simulating effects of land use changes on carbon fluxes: past contributions to atmospheric CO₂ increases and future commitments due to losses of terrestrial sink capacity

The impact of land use on the global carbon cycle and climate is assessed. The Bern carbon cycle-climate model was used with land use maps from HYDE3.0 for 1700 to 2000 A.D. and from post-SRES scenarios for this century. Cropland and pasture expansion each cause about half of the simulated net carbon emissions of 188 Gt C over the industrial period and 1.1 Gt C yr⁻¹ in the 1990s, implying a residual terrestrial sink of 113 Gt C and of 1.8 Gt C yr⁻¹, respectively. Direct CO₂ emissions due to land conversion as simulated in book-keeping models dominate carbon fluxes due to land use in the past. They are, however, mitigated by 25% through the feedback of increased atmospheric CO₂ stimulating uptake. CO₂ stimulated sinks are largely lost when natural lands are converted. Past land use change has eliminated potential future carbon sinks equivalent to emissions of 80–150 Gt C over this century. They represent a commitment of past land use change, which accounts for 70% of the future land use flux in the scenarios considered. Pre-industrial land use emissions are estimated to 45 Gt C at most, implying a maximum change in Holocene atmospheric CO₂ of 3 ppm. This is not compatible with the hypothesis that early anthropogenic CO₂ emissions prevented a new glacial period.