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Design, deploy, and evaluate EMBERS, an automated system designed to forecast civil unrest continuously using diverse open-source intelligence sources.

August 22, 2014

'Beating the news' with EMBERS

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Design, deploy, and evaluate EMBERS, an automated system designed to forecast civil unrest continuously using diverse open-source intelligence sources.
Built a 24x7 automated pipeline ingesting tweets, news articles, blogs, and economic indicators across 10 Latin American countries.
Engineered specialized predictive models coupled with a fusion and suppression engine to optimize trade-offs between precision and recall, alongside an audit trail interface for prediction transparency.
Conducted prospective, real-time forecasting starting in November 2012, with predictions independently assessed by a third-party evaluation team (MITRE).
Consistently outperformed baseline baserate models across continuous multi-country evaluations.
Successfully predicted major historical unrest events ahead of time, including the June 2013 protests in Brazil and the February 2014 violent protests in Venezuela.

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Implication

System evaluation demonstrates prospective forecasting of civil unrest across 10 Latin American countries using open-source data, highlighting the viability of real-time automated social event...

Cite This Study

Ramakrishnan et al. (2014) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a10f83739dd87f6d0eea6c7 https://doi.org/10.1145/2623330.2623373

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Implication

System evaluation demonstrates prospective forecasting of civil unrest across 10 Latin American countries using open-source data, highlighting the viability of real-time automated social event...

'Beating the news' with EMBERS

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Implication

Cite This Study

'Beating the news' with EMBERS

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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