Predicting people perceived plant diversity in urban green spaces using panoramic photos: a case study of Shanghai

Introduction Urban green spaces (UGSs) play a dual role in high-density cities: they are crucial for biodiversity conservation and serve as key venues for promoting residents’ health. However, the benefits gained by people in these settings depend less on objectively measured biodiversity and more on their subjective perception of it. Visual cues, which account for over 80% of sensory input, significantly shape this perception. Methods This study explores the interrelationships among measured plant diversity, perceived plant diversity, and visual landscape characteristics in UGSs, so that to develop a predictive model for perceived diversity using the other two variables. Based on a case study of nine representative parks in Shanghai, the research compared measured plant diversity—using four indices (arbor, shrub, herbaceous, and community diversity)—with perceived plant diversity and evaluated the influence of visual landscape features. Results Results showed a significant mismatch between measured and perceived diversity. Furthermore, visual characteristics were more effective than measured biodiversity in predicting perceived plant diversity. These findings offer practical, short-term design strategies for enhancing perceived biodiversity in urban parks—complementing longer-term ecological measures aimed at increasing actual biodiversity. Discussion This study advances the understanding of how objective biodiversity, human perception, and visual environment interact, and supports the design of nature-based solutions that benefit both human well-being and biodiversity conservation.