Aging, Natural Death, and the Compression of Morbidity: Another View

In a compelling and articulate Special Article published in the Journal over three years ago, Fries1 outlined a set of predictions indicating that the number of very old people would not increase, that the average period of diminished vigor would decrease, that chronic diseases would occupy a smaller proportion of the life span, and that the needs for medical care in later life would decrease. Such predictions have important implications for planning the future allocation of health resources. The evidence that we will review supports quite different conclusions: that the number of very old people is increasing rapidly, that the . . .