The Divergence of Black and White Marriage Patterns

This article examines the patterns and determinants of first marriage among black and white women in the United States. Three major differences exist between the first-marriage patterns of black and white women: (1) lower proportions of blacks marry than whites; (2) the proportion of women who ever marry has declined substantially across cohorts for blacks but modestly across cohorts for whites; and (3) while increased education is associated negatively, if slightly, with the probability of ever marrying among whites, it is associated positively among blacks. The observed racial divergence is consistent with three factors experienced differentially by blacks and whits: the marriage squeeze, labor-market success, and out-of-wedlock childbearing. Given the traditional age differences between spouses, there are far fewer eligible male mates for black women than for white women among cohorts born before the late 1950s. For both blacks and whites, employment status is positively associated with the propensity to marry, but for young blacks the labor-market situation is generally poor and has deteriorated significantly across time in comparison with other groups. Finally, having an out-of-wedlock child at an early age is strongly negatively associated with the likelihood that a woman will ultimately marry.