Key result
Higher cropland coverage linked to ~58% increased Japanese encephalitis risk versus low coverage.
Why the study?
Despite a vaccination campaign since 2004, Japanese encephalitis remains a public health problem in Guizhou, requiring better understanding of its spatiotemporal distribution and relationship with environmental factors.
What is the relationship between environmental factors and the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in Guizhou Province?
Observational (n=7,423)
What is the relationship between environmental factors and the incidence of Japanese encephalitis in Guizhou Province?
Effect estimate: IRR 1.58 (95% CI 1.47-1.68)
Absolute Event Rate: 30.84% vs 19.96%
p-value: p=<0.01
In the post-vaccination era, the highest risk of Japanese encephalitis transmission in Guizhou Province is in mid-level developed areas with specific environmental characteristics.
JE risk may rise with cropland exposure post-vaccination; supports targeted surveillance but leaves open causal interventions for trials.
BACKGROUND: Although a vaccination campaign has been conducted since 2004, Japanese encephalitis (JE) is still a public health problem in Guizhou, one of the provinces with the highest incidence of JE in China. The aim of this study was to understand the spatiotemporal distribution of JE and its relationship with environmental factors in Guizhou Province in the post-vaccination era, 2004-2016. METHODS: We collected data on human JE cases in Guizhou Province from 2004 to 2016 from the national infectious disease reporting system. A Poisson regression model was used to analyze the relationship between JE occurrence and environmental factors amongst counties. RESULTS: Our results showed that the incidence and mortality of JE decreased after the initiation of vaccination. JE cases were mainly concentrated in preschool and school-age children and the number of cases in children over age 15 years was significantly decreased compared with the previous 10 years; the seasonality of JE before and after the use of vaccines was unchanged. JE incidence was positively associated with cultivated land and negatively associated with gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, vegetation coverage, and developed land. In areas with cultivated land coverage < 25%, vegetation coverage > 55%, and urban area coverage > 25%, the JE risk was lower. The highest JE incidence was among mid-level GDP areas and in moderately urbanized areas. CONCLUSIONS: This study assessed the relationship between incidence of JE and environmental factors in Guizhou Province. Our results highlight that the highest risk of JE transmission in the post-vaccination era is in mid-level developed areas.
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Zhao et al. (2021) conducted an observational in Japanese encephalitis (n=7,423). High cropland coverage (>35%) vs. Low cropland coverage (<25%) was evaluated on Japanese encephalitis incidence (per 100,000 persons) (IRR 1.58, 95% CI 1.47-1.68, p=<0.01). Higher cropland coverage (>35%) was associated with a 58% increased risk of Japanese encephalitis (IRR 1.58) compared to low coverage (<25%), while higher GDP, vegetation, and urban area coverage were associated with lower risk.
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